Dengue has quietly crossed a line in Bangladesh.
Once a seasonal disease that flared up during the monsoon, it now spreads throughout the year, killing hundreds and sickening thousands.
Yet, despite record deaths and continuous transmission, the government has not declared it an epidemic — a decision that health experts describe as political, not scientific.
As of early November, dengue cases continue to surge nationwide.
The Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) has confirmed that October was the deadliest month of the year, with 80 deaths and over 2,200 infections.
Another 20 deaths were reported in the first week of November alone.
This year’s cumulative cases have already surpassed 2024 levels, though still below the unprecedented outbreak of 2023.
Hospitals in Dhaka continue to see over 1,000 new patients daily, forcing many to sleep in corridors or share beds.
The shift, doctors say, is not just numerical — it’s structural.
“Aedes mosquitoes are now breeding year-round,” said Professor Dr Kabirul Bashar, a leading entomologist.
“Once we could say dengue season starts with the rain. Now there is no season. Dengue has become endemic.”
What makes an outbreak an epidemic?
By global health standards, dengue in Bangladesh meets nearly every criterion for an epidemic.
The World Health Organization (WHO) defines an epidemic as a sudden increase in cases beyond the expected norm within a given area or time frame.
Bangladesh has recorded month-on-month spikes, with death tolls far exceeding the country’s historical averages.
In July, 41 people died; in August, 39; in September, 76; and in October, 80.
Experts say this consistent escalation, combined with overwhelmed hospitals, meets the WHO threshold for an epidemic.
So why won’t the govt call it one?
“It’s political,” said Dr Bashar.
“Declaring an epidemic means admitting failure in prevention and governance. Authorities fear panic, criticism, and accountability. So they avoid the word entirely.”
Experts and public health workers describe a pattern of denial at every level.
Preventive medicine specialist Dr MH Choudhury Lelin called the current crisis “a public health emergency that no one wants to own.”
“The government’s response has become symbolic,” he said.
“Even fogging, which scientists have proven ineffective against Aedes mosquitoes, continues mainly for show. The real work of source reduction and community participation is missing.”
Dr Lelin added that Bangladesh’s climate and urban conditions have created an ideal breeding ground.
“Because of irregular rainfall and waterlogging, mosquitoes are reproducing throughout the year. This is no longer a seasonal outbreak, it’s a structural failure.”
Officials say initiatives continue
Officials at the Dhaka North City Corporation (DNCC) insist that efforts are being made, albeit under constraints.
DNCC Administrator Mohammad Azaz told Dhaka Tribune that expert-led measures have been implemented since the start of the monsoon.
“Seven new inspectors have been deployed to monitor mosquito breeding,” he said.
“Data suggests a slight decline in cases compared to last year, but even one death is unacceptable.”
Azaz admitted, however, that manpower shortages remain critical.
“According to international standards, we need 2.3 workers for every 1,000 people. We have one for every 11,000. We are doing our best, but it’s not enough.”
He added that long-term control depends on “collective action — from health authorities, schools, and citizens — not just the city corporation.”
Hidden crisis behind numbers
Public health analysts say the actual burden is likely far higher than official records suggest.
Many mild or moderate dengue cases go unreported, especially outside Dhaka.
“The numbers you see in reports reflect only a fraction of reality,” Dr Lelin said.
“Deaths from dengue often happen at home, especially in rural areas where diagnosis is delayed or unaffordable.”
He described the government’s approach as reactive rather than preventive.
“Every year, we start over as if it’s new. That’s not how epidemics are handled.”
Climate, urban chaos, and poor coordination
Experts point to a web of structural failures behind Bangladesh’s inability to control dengue, from unplanned urbanization to poor waste management and weak coordination among agencies.
Stagnant water in construction sites, plastic waste, rooftop tanks, and blocked drains all serve as perfect breeding sites for Aedes mosquitoes.
Dr Bashar warned that without scientific vector control and inter-agency collaboration, “the situation will spiral further.”
He called for integrated mosquito management — combining surveillance, larval source reduction, and community education — rather than piecemeal interventions.
The recurring outbreaks reflect a grim irony: a preventable disease that the country has learned to live with.
“We’ve normalized death from dengue,” Bashar said.
“In other countries, a few dozen deaths would trigger a national emergency. Here, hundreds die and we move on.”
As Bangladesh enters yet another dry season with mosquitoes still biting, experts say the question is no longer whether dengue is an epidemic — but why the government refuses to call it one.
“Words matter,” said Dr Lelin.
“Declaring an epidemic isn’t just symbolic. It unlocks resources, mobilizes response systems, and acknowledges people’s suffering. Refusing to name it only deepens the denial.”
For now, Bangladesh’s dengue outbreak continues — unacknowledged as an epidemic, but experienced as one by those living through it.
